CAMPAIGN OUTSIDER The story of O
By Muhammad Cohen
HONG KONG - Democratic Senator Barack Obama has correctly observed that the
Republicans want to make the US presidential election all about him. Republican
Senator John McCain wants voters to question Obama's character, his policies
and his record. The November election is shaping up as a referendum on Obama,
and the candidate is posting disappointing early results.
One poll last week showed McCain erasing a nine percentage point gap to pull
even with his rival. Other polls show Obama maintaining an uncomfortably close
single-digit lead. Obama's
triumphant July visit to Afghanistan, the Middle East and Europe, rather than
sending his numbers soaring, has become something of an albatross thanks to the
skillful work of McCain's campaign team.
McCain's ads attacking Obama, mocking him as a celebrity and even a prophet,
follow Senator Hillary Clinton's Democratic primary season theme painting Obama
is an elitist. The charge is nearly as ludicrous coming from McCain, who has
been famous since he became a prisoner of war in 1967 and has a taste for fancy
vacation retreats and shoes at US$500 a pair, as it was from the former first
lady who wrung out supporters for White House parting gifts on her way to the
senate.
Who's the risky one? The message that Obama is not like the rest of us
or "arrogant" may carry special resonance because he's black. McCain has also
scored with the notion that Obama is a "risky" choice for commander-in-chief.
That assertion suggests that McCain is a more proven commodity, even though he
has no more relevant executive experience than the Illinois senator. In foreign
policy, McCain's supposed strength, the Arizona senator's instincts, from
invading Iraq to singing "Bomb Iran", may seem the riskier package.
But the real headline from this line of the campaigning is that despite
professed revulsion at the personal attacks from George W Bush's campaign and
McCain's declaration he plans to run a clean race on the issues in 2008, the
Republican's campaign has gone personal and done it early. McCain's latest ad
links Obama with the phrases "painful choices ... higher taxes ... not ready to
lead". Attacking Obama has given McCain's campaign some direction and currency
that it was lacking.
It has also seemingly helped to rebalance the media scales to get McCain back
on the radar. Ironically, by putting the focus on Obama, McCain seems to have
gotten people to pay more attention to what he is saying on issues. He scored a
win on offshore oil drilling, seeing Obama backtrack from his opposition to
saying he'd support it as part of a comprehensive congressional energy plan.
That example of what McCain likes to call "stark differences" would be more
powerful if McCain himself wasn't a latecomer to supporting expanded offshore
drilling.
That tidbit underscores how pesky issues can be along the campaign trail, even
when they go your way. This year, few issues are likely to break in the
Republicans' favor. A solid majority of Americans oppose the war in Iraq. The
economy is in a bad patch on both Wall Street and Main Street. Republicans
would much rather have voters speculate about what Obama might do than evaluate
what the Republican currently in the White House has done.
Silent W
McCain would rather talk about anything other than Bush and his policies as
Bush's popularity keeps circling the commode, lapping all-time presidential
lows. Democrats call McCain "McSame" and say he's running for a third Bush
term. McCain had been trying to counter those charges, with mixed results. It
is far better to ignore the guy in the White House and attack Obama. If
Republican strategists had been a little more clever, they might've staged
their party convention while Bush was on his East Asian swing to keep him away.
The Democrats are licking their chops for a new convention photo of Bush and
McCain together to drive home their point that McCain is more of the same.
Turning the spotlight on Obama shouldn't be successful only for the
Republicans. Rather than complain as Obama has about the glare shining brightly
on him, the Democratic contender and his party should welcome the nourishing
light of public exposure and convert it into energy and voters. They should
embrace the focus on Obama as a chance to put out their messages about why the
Democrats are different from a president with approval ratings in the 20% range
and the Republican candidates bearing Bush's stain.
It's odd for Obama to be griping that the vote has become a referendum on him;
that's one vote that any politician ought welcome and be confident about
winning. Moreover, Obama gets a free shot to tell voters who he is, highlight
his unique version of the American dream, and lay out his policies to reverse
and repair the damage of the past eight years.
All about me
If Obama can't or won't do, there's another Democrat available who is quite
comfortable when things are all about her. In fact, she rarely encounters any
situation that's not all about her and her illustrious family. Hillary Clinton
would relish the chance to face McCain, or anyone else, in a referendum about
her. While Obama lounges on the beach in Hawaii this week, perhaps Hillary
Clinton diehards are reminding Democratic super delegates that she's tanned,
rested and ready, if still supremely unrealistic about her chances.
Where Clinton and McCain have succeeded, and Obama lags, is in creating a
persona that voters can readily identify and succinctly characterize. It may
not be a persona that's been consistent over the years, let alone weeks, but
it's a label that makes it easy for voters to understand who the candidate is
and what they stand for.
Over four decades in public life, McCain has gone from Vietnam prisoner of war
number one to maverick lawmaker to rock-ribbed Republican traditionalist.
Clinton has transitioned from the house liberal in her husband's
pseudo-Republican administration to the patron saint of the Ronald Reagan
Democrat, embracing the working person who embraces guns, God and old glory.
At this stage, McCain is creating Obama's image for him, just as Clinton did
late in the primary season. Obama needs to create a winning image for himself,
one that will not just withstand the glare of the Republican spotlight but
blossom in it. For a professional politician with a veteran staff schooled in
the sharp-elbowed world of Illinois politics, creating and presenting that
positive image should be easy. Supporters should simply hope Obama and company
have made a calculated decision to sit out this political silly season and keep
their powder dry for the autumn, when undecided voters will make up their
minds.
Despite the initial success of making the election about Obama, McCain and his
team still can't feel too confident. They're following the same strategy
Hillary Clinton's team used once it realized that Obama was a threat. While the
Clinton campaign landed some blows on Obama and knocked him down a notch or two
from his lofty perch, all it got them was second place.
Former broadcast news producer Muhammad Cohen told America’s story to the
world as a US diplomat and is author of Hong Kong On Air (www.hongkongonair.com),
a novel set during the 1997 handover about television news, love, betrayal,
high finance and cheap lingerie.
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